Africa analyst Christopher Edyegu argues that Kenya’s rising prominence and France’s strategic recalibration in Africa signal a broader reordering of geopolitical partnerships, with far-reaching implications for trade, security and global engagement

Africa’s diplomatic and geopolitical landscape is undergoing a subtle yet significant shift as some regional players gain prominence and traditional external powers face growing competition on the continent.

The announcement on April 3 that Kenya and France will jointly host the Africa–France Summit in Nairobi on May 11 and 12 under the theme ‘Africa Forward: Africa-France Partnerships for Innovation and Growth Summit’ – the first time the summit is hosted in a non-Francophone country – represents a huge symbolic shift in France’s strategy on the continent.

For Kenya, hosting the summit and its invitation to June’s Group of Seven (G7) Summit in Évian-les-Bains, France, shows its geopolitical profile is rising. Whoever represents Africa at the G7 effectively speaks for the continent and shapes its position on trade, debt relief and development financing, among other issues. Kenya is also increasingly occupying the diplomatic space traditionally dominated by South Africa, suggesting it is becoming a more convenient regional partner for Western engagement with Africa.

By moving to bolster relations with Kenya, France is resetting its relations with Africa after suffering a significant diplomatic setback in West Africa, traditionally its primary sphere of influence on the continent.

While Emmanuel Macron pledged to strengthen ties with African countries when he became French Presidency in 2017, he has made little progress in retaining France’s traditional partnerships in West Africa or forging new ones. The Alliance des États du Sahel (AES) States – Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso – as well as Chad, Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal, have all asked that French forces vacate military bases within their boundaries.

Macron’s comments suggesting that certain African countries owed their independence to France after its intervention against coups and insurgencies were widely criticised across the continent. More recently, Russia, which moved swiftly to fill the diplomatic and security void left by France in the AES countries, is once again pushing to strengthen ties with Madagascar, where France has traditionally maintained considerable influence.

Despite these diplomatic setbacks, France continues to wield significant structural power in the region, particularly through the CFA franc, which is used by 14 West and Central African countries and links their monetary systems to French and European financial systems. Engaging with Kenya, which has also signed a renewable five-year defence pact with France, allows France to counterbalance its declining political influence in parts of Africa.

France’s strategic decision to deepen engagement with Kenya is neither random nor purely symbolic but reflects a calculated diplomatic move. Kenya – Africa’s sixth-largest economy behind South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Algeria and Morocco – is emerging as one of the region’s fastest-growing technology and investment hubs. Beyond rising interest in its digital economy and green energy sector, Kenya has maintained constructive relations with both China and Western governments. Notably, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio praised Kenya’s President William Ruto in March for condemning what he described as “Iranian aggression”, while previously describing Kenya as a “reliable partner to the US” in promoting peace and security, both in Africa and Haiti, where Kenyan troops are supporting efforts to stabilise the security situation in that country.

Kenya’s rising diplomatic weight is further emphasised by the development that the United Nations is considering relocating the global headquarters of three of its agencies to Nairobi from more expensive Western cities – a move that would further bolster the Kenyan capital’s status as a major UN hub alongside New York (US), Geneva (Switzerland) and Vienna (Austria).

Meanwhile, Ruto may hope that Kenya’s rising global prominence will help offset the rising domestic unpopularity of his government.

Kenya’s rising diplomatic capital appears to come at the expense of South Africa, which has traditionally acted as Africa’s main diplomatic representative with major global powers and hosted the first Group of 20 Summit in Africa in Johannesburg last year. Some reports have suggested that at the summit, Macron had privately invited South African President Cyril Ramaphosa to attend this year’s G7 summit but later rescinded the invitation after US President Donald Trump reportedly threatened to boycott the event if the South African leader is present.

Nevertheless, South Africa retains significant diplomatic weight as Africa’s largest economy and long-standing advocate for the interests of developing nations in global institutions. Ramaphosa is highly respected for his role in South Africa’s transition from apartheid to democracy. Therefore, Kenya’s rising diplomatic profile does not make South Africa irrelevant on either the regional or global stage.

These developments indicate that as geopolitical competition in Africa intensifies, its diplomatic landscape is gradually shifting. Traditional partners like France are recalibrating engagement with the continent, while rising actors like Kenya are seizing new opportunities to elevate their global influence.